The first headline I was greeted with this morning was from CNN: “Why Nobody Knows Who Will Win the 2024 Election?” The second was a New York Times headline that said the election was closer than ever, almost tied, and listed a long list of “tied” states.

The third was from Kamala Harris in an e-mail saying things were dire, the race was close, too close to call, but she intended to win anyway. The fourth was a statement from Donald Trump calling Harris a “shit Vice President,”  complementing Arnold Palmer’s supposedly large penis,  and saying things were tough, he might even lose, but he was sure he would win.

For me, it’s a head spinner all around. These days, I’m trusting myself more than anyone, and that is a good thing.

I remember the great political writer David Broder (The Washington Post), who traveled with me on a political story I wrote in Pennsylvania when I was just a kid with a pad and pencil. He was my hero.

I asked him what made a great political writer in his mind, and his answer was soft and quick and accompanied by a smile: “That’s easy. You can’t be afraid to be wrong. It’s okay to be wrong; it isn’t okay not to trust your instincts. If you fail, fail on your thoughts, not somebody else’s.”

This was the best advice I ever received. It’s painful to read all the media and other politicians telling me and every voter that they no longer know who will win or lose.

In the so-called “mainstream media,” it is a firing offense to say you know something; you just slug it out with the other side.” It is a small wonder that nobody trusts the media; they have rendered themselves useless in making more money by never offending anyone.

I offend people all the time because I try to say what I think all the time. Lots of people don’t like that, but I accept that reality.

For one thing, each of us knows who we want to win those, and that is the poll that genuinely counts the most.

The people in the media have no idea who will win because they are no longer allowed to think about it – any political pundit on cable who wasn’t labeled red or blue would be fired instantly if they predicted a winter.

They hide behind polling as if it was ever close to being true and accurate. I don’t object to polling, just to people whose minds are shut down.

The Blues would scream for blood and resignation if a reporter said what they thought; the Reds would turn on the death threats and launch the boycotts.  Leon Musk would spew his vomit on X.

For hundreds of years, journalists have been expected to think for themselves and not fear their conclusions. Labeling people—blue and red, liberal or conservative —requires the absence of thought, individuality, and judgment. It’s a terrible loss, but I will never succumb to it.

I can’t tell you I will be right, but I am not afraid to be wrong.  That’s what good writers do, although it drives many people on social media out of their minds. Of course, being wrong is possible for me and anyone else; any human being can be wrong, and that is an elemental truth of being human.

But I can tell you who I believe will win the election; I think for myself and use my ears, eyes, heart, and brain to decide.

It means a lot to me to make my own decisions.

Here it is.

As is the new political tradition in such a divided country,Kamal Harris will win the election by a narrow margin despite an ugly challenge, argument, and legal struggle. I can’t prove it, and in a free democracy, I don’t need to or should not have to.

I see Donald Trump disintegrating before the nation’s eyes. He is losing his clarity and focus. He is making one dreadful mistake after another and basking in it.

Cursing, vulgar words, and talking about men’s penises is not what most Americans want to hear. Nor is his day at McDonald’s in a laughable apron to insult his opponent.

His rally followers will never object to anything he says; they love to yell “shit, shit” back at him; they also love to listen to him sing and dance for a half hour after somebody in the audience gets sick. Taylor Swift doesn’t have to worry.

But his rallygoers are different from those who will decide the election, something he refuses to grasp.

There is much to wonder about Kamala Harris, but she has proven to be a better, wiser, and more skilled politician than Trump by a hundred miles.

These days, he reminds me of the old Borsch Belt comedians and singers in the Catskills, who performed on stage well past their time.

He just can’t do it anymore. She’s come an unbelievably long way in a few weeks, and there is no reason to doubt she won’t go all the way. Poor Trump is a mess; there are many reasons to think he is stumbling in the wrong direction.

Harris may or may not make a great president, but she is no “shit” politician.

Trump is looking in the mirror and seeing a horror story unfolding in his life and future. Even though polls are becoming less reliable, not more, Harris has mastered the art of using them to raise a ton of money. They are suitable for that.

Nothing frightens people more than the polls suggesting their candidate is about to lose. (Please immediately send $50, $25, or $5.) Be afraid, but not that afraid.

We’ll know in less than a month. She knows the new politics all too well.

Harris knows what she is doing. Trump has lost his way.

That matters, especially when the dust clears, and it’s decision time. Whatever happens, I don’t believe an Apocalypse is bearing on us. At worst, more years of hatred, stalemate, and grievance.

Millions of Americans still can and will think for themselves and make their own decisions. I believe more than enough will vote for Harris to win—more than the polls predicted. These are people who are tired of hatred, anger, grievances, and a broken national legislature. We have rough days again and for a while.

I’ve had many good conversations about our country in my small town with disagreeing people. Most of them are good people, and they want a peaceful and stable country just as much as I do. We just have different ideas about what that might be. None of them have cursed at me or threatened me.

I believe in this democracy and in the people who decide its future. I know many people who can still think and form opinions, and I trust them.  I trust the founders, but great minds built outstanding checks and balances for us centuries ago. The pundits say they never imagined a Trump. I think they did.

It’s a mess right now, but it was well-built to survive, and Donald Trump is undoubtedly someone other than the person to take it down.

I like to think I am one of the sensible, but that is self-serving. I respect people who disagree with me.

I’m eager to see what happens. I’m a Jeffersonian; Americans have kept this system going for centuries. I don’t believe they will hand it over to Donald Trump.

I know who will win, at least in my mind. I won’t hide behind any polls.  I have no fear of being wrong; I have a lot of experience with being insufficient and a lot of success with my aging brain. Life will go on.

I respect myself; whether others do or not, I don’t care. (I know I could never survive as a President. No one will ever have to tell to tell me, or ask me, for that matter.)

I’m grateful to live in a democracy where I can make my own prediction.