3 February

Come Track The Storm With Me. The Radar Map Is Exciting, But Surprising…

by Jon Katz

Zinnia and I went outside (it’s 6:11 p.m.) to see the storm approach; it had begun to snow lightly after the rain turned to snow. I have a radar storm tracking program on my I phone (and one on my Weather Channel App. I’ve learned to take the weather seriously up here. Maria was busy in her studio, always a beautiful sight.

But I see something interesting on my radar. It looks as if the extensive storm line is just Southeast of us, and that we might be avoiding the worst of the storm:

The dark green is the rain; the pink is ice; the blue above the blue dot is snow.

The storm is moving towards the northeast at an angle. The heavy snow may reach us later and go all night, which would give us a lot of snow. The weather channel map says we are getting more than six inches of snow here. If that is so, it will be coming overnight, and the storm doesn’t seem to be headed our way.

We’ll see. Take a look at the radar map yourself. I have three images, one, for now, two projections.

I set the radar map to 10:45 p.m., below:

It showed a similar pattern, but also, the edges of the storm were beginning to disintegrate, and the ice and snow were still getting closer. We are the blue dot in the map image. It’s not snowing now, just icing.

Then I asked for a projection closer to midnight, the latest one I can get at the moment. I got as far as 11:55 p.m., more than five hours later than the first image. We are northeast of Albany and just to the west of Vermont. Again, we are the blue dot.

This shows a dramatic change in the radar map; it has the rain moving farther off to the east, which is the storm’s track and carries the wintery mix and ice line even farther away from us. If this pans out, we’ll have a small amount of snow and a fair amount of ice, which can certainly be serious.

I’ll post until bedtime or unless the power goes out.

I’m predicting three to six inches of snow. We already have ice building up on the doors and windows. But little snow.

This doesn’t suggest that we don’t have a mess coming.  But I have found the radar maps to be the most reliable as the storm gets closer.

I’ll track this for a while to see if it holds up. Feel free to follow along if it interests you. I guess there is a geek buried inside of me somewhere. Maybe that’s why I wrote a book called “Geeks.”

More later.

14 Comments

  1. You know, you might not have been a mediocre student, but the experience contributed to you becoming a great teacher.
    ?

  2. On our weather maps down here in Texas, the green is rain and the blue is snow so you might be headed for a lot of snow, and hopefully avoid the pink and purple which are the deadly stuff

    1. Your maps are the same as ours, Lorlee, I mixed them up and corrected it thanks..Good thing, too I would have been shocked in the morning.

      1. Ahhh. Don’ t we all ? I was awed by the way you and your teacher work together. It isn’t so much that is that he does it in the old hierarchical way we were usually bored stiff by … It seemed to me he jumped into the issue at hand and you worked on it together. Starting out he has more experience with it than
        you have but before long you had morphed into one of those ferocious students that want to squeeze their teacher dry for everything he/she knows. It’s an extraordinary relationship and very exciting. Lucky you. ??

  3. Jon…
    I’ve been a weather geek since our first hurricane in the 1950s (they didn’t even name them then). Weather radar has been a more recent and special interest. TV radar has improved in the last few years, but this newer weather.com radar display is exceptional. I also have a weather radio, but the display is more precise.

    With the location set to our city (a suburb), it is surprisingly accurate. Recently, I was looking for a dry time to walk our dog. The display depicted graphically, in 15-minute intervals, the movement and onset of rain coming to our location. When I followed this prediction, misting began as I left, and an umbrella was not needed until minutes after our return.

    In unstable weather areas like South Florida, the presence of highly localized, seasonal “pop-up” thunderstorms is unpredictable. Until recently, only an area rain probability was possible. But a radar image that shows what’s actually happening, or expected to happen, at a particular place is a significant improvement.

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