I think it’s important to take stock of where we are every day. This is a half-empty half-full cup kind of time. Lots of good, lots of bad. Come along and see what you wish to see.
First, Biden will win; it will be official sometime in the next day or two.
Trumpism is with us for good.
Trump and the movement that has grown around him has raised many important questions – especially about the needs and disconnection of rural America – that Democrats, progressives, and liberals will finally have to face.
And about time.
We have all been humbled. America is not as great as we thought it was, or were told it was. Over the next few years, I believe a moral revolution is coming, and I want to be a part of it.
We might end up being great again, or maybe for the first time. The stage is set.
As to Donald Trump, I think he’s about over in the sense of having great power and meaning.
Much is being made of the 70 million people who voted for him. Still, I believe many of them were voting for many things – like real economic opportunity and a meaningful future for them and their children.
The minute I heard the words “defund the police,” I felt (and I wrote) that this was about the worst thing that could have happened to Joe Biden. I think many millions of Trump’s votes came from that unfortunate if understandable, impulse.
And it was damaging, offering Trump and his campaign a wide window through which to cast Democrats as “radical” leftists dangerously out of touch with reality.
Whenever liberals get too excited, they drift out of reality and into self-righteousness. No matter how often they get slapped down, they do it again.
The issues surrounding race and policing in America are complex and urgent, and none of them can be so easily resolved with so simple and poorly expressed an idea.
It gave weight and life to his xenophobic law and order campaign. I wrote that there aren’t a dozen communities in American who would support that idea, and Biden dealt with it poorly.
The real miracle was that Trump’s racism and xenophobia were rejected by a clear majority of Americans, perhaps for the first time in the country’s history.
In ducking this issue, Biden just looked weak and wishy-washy. He needed African-American votes. The right move was to argue for changing and helping the police, not taking their funding away as violent riots and demonstrations had erupted across the country.
This was only one reason for what happened, but I think it was a big one.
The issues that Trump’s election and Trumpism’s continuous popularity raised are genuine and will not go away.
The good thing about the surprising support he received is that this time is that we can’t forget the cries of pain and need – or bigotry – coming from the heartland.
I believe that so many of his votes were not about loving him but about several things – white power, declining rural economies, the collapse of rural cultural institutions like farming and small businesses, the decline in community, the opioid epidemic, and rising homelessness, suicide and severe health care issues.
In their campaign, the Democrats foolishly (and again), avoided mentioning almost all of those issues.
The Democratic Party really has become an elite institution, many of its follower’s elitists. That’s why so many people hate them. The working-class people who followed them for years have almost completely abandoned them, just as they were completely abandoned.
They cannot succeed only as of the urban and the affluent party, and if Democrats ever want to really grow and win, they will have to do something about it. The same thing is true of progressives.
There are plenty of Trumps out there waiting in line, drooling over what they see as his great success. He has opened the door for them.
Only real change will alter that reality. Trumpism is now a permanent part of our political lexicon. How the country responds will say a lot about the future.
Biden has several ways to win the election, and he is close to winning all of them. Trump will never concede or support a peaceful transition, so there is little do but suck it up, listening and talking, and counting the days until January.
Get some ear muffs or an Ipod and listen to music, not arguments and lies.
They might have to drag Trump out of the White House, but I doubt it. He seems like a coward to me, and he will run first, blaming everyone but himself as he goes.
The Republicans have gotten much or all of what they most wanted, and they are still in powerful positions.
But they can function without all of the drama and controversy that a person like Trump brings. They are politicians, and when they don’t need someone, they toss them over the side. It happens every day.
The irony is that their party has no future in the new American with Donald Trump as their leaders, and many of them know it.
This turn away from him will start to happen once Biden is certified as the next president. And that will happen. When Biden says to be patient, listen. Be patient.
Donald Trump will be a disruptive circus all the way to the end. That is his destiny and ours.
I have no polls to show that he is done, but the President I saw on TV last night was spent, exhausted, and unable to bear the idea of defeat.
He is becoming what he most dreads and despises: a loser.
That does make him dangerous, but it also makes him weak. And a weak Trump is pathetic, not powerful.
He’s had his big moment. He will soon be a sideshow, not the main event, he’ll be spending a lot of time and money in court.
Trump follows in the timeless trajectory of demagogues. When governments lie or fail, demagogues appear.
They live off of hatred and division, but they stumble and fall when they have to govern.
They are like wolverines because they can hunt but they can’t govern; they sniff blood in the wind and go after their prey. They don’t really know how to do anything else.
Leaders like Trump feed off of the misery and suffering around them. They need a powerful position to live and prosper and declaim. Losing power is a castration for them.
Ranting from Mar-A-Largo or a radio show is not the same as being a President who rants from the White House and controls the world’s most powerful army.
It is tempting for me to write Trump as a parasite, an exploitive leader feeding off the White Nationalist strain in America, which is as old as the Republic. But that’s too easy.
White men are making one of their last stands, for sure. Just look at those caravans and AR-15’s
But I’ve seen the devastation in rural America – I live there – and I know it has to be addressed; their unhappiness and anger goes far beyond racism.
As Georgia and Biden’s votes remind us, America is changing. We are becoming a diverse culture, Georgia and other races’ closeness reveals that reality and foretells it.
Trump can’t stop it; neither can his followers.
The women’s revolution is real. Black Lives Matter is not a group, it is a social phenomenon, and it is genuine. People of color are very, very, real. They aren’t going away. In fact, if Biden wins, a lot more will be coming.
Climate change has finally become a life or death fight for the young, as they and their families will most feel the consequences.
There is a lot to feel worried about and a lot to feel good about, and a lot to feel bad about. That’s life. In a way, it’s what makes our country great.
I look forward to living in this country at this time and writing about it and being a part of what comes next. And about dogs, of course.
Thanks for staying with me.
As a long time political consultant, I believe you have an absolutely correct about the Democrats not understanding the working population And allowing the word defund to continue to be in play. Thankfully there are people like Stacey Abrams in Georgia and Beto O’Rourke in Texas who understand it is a personal battle. Stacy Abrams registered 800,000 people since 2018. She is the hero in this election
Thanks for reminding me about Ms.Abrams she did do a remarkable job…we will be hearing a lot from her and about her.
Much better. I think your points are all valid ones and I think that this piece was magnificent!
Again, I could not agree more. Maybe it’s our commonality of farm living, perhaps we have shared similar life experiences, either way I think that we both realize that change is coming.
It is that change I would like to speak about. I think it is important how that change occurs. True and lasting change comes from realization and correction. Enlightenment. We couldn’t fix the problem until we recognized that we ourselves had a problem. If this president has done nothing else he has shown a spotlight on those problems that many of us may have recognized but failed to address because they did not seem to directly affect us. We are a nation in need of self reflection. Change comes from within. First and foremost we are Americans. All of us are Americans. If we aren’t working for the betterment of all, we are self defeating our efforts.
Thank you for your thoughts and may peace abide with you.
Dogs are good.
If you are half way interested in the why and how Trump supporters are seeing things right now, do read this. If you are content in your self righteous complacency, then by all means continue to use your forum to sow vitriol and discord.
It is what liberals do best. Judge and condemn. One uses the talents they have honed I guess.
https://spectator.org/democrats-voter-fraud/?fbclid=IwAR2UAJOAJYzj5kvkXQL6dRvAvmtW3i9YCKtM5JhDnwhHGy3AXdFSAwglCOQ
I think what most liberals I know do best is have sex and read big books…It’s interesting that even in at least a partial victory, people who message me all seem like assholes…How ironic that a message of judgment and condemnation can’t think of anything better to do than judge and condemn (and lie, I see).. One of the hallmarks of the Trump message – like the Trump himself – is much whining about how badly they are treated and how cruel everyone is to them, while their messages are invariably cruel and nasty. How does this happen?
I almost cried when I read this (in quotes below) from your link. First it is contemptuous and cold hearted toward those who haven’t had it rich or lucky. It’s Ice in the veins. Second it’s about as far from any moral system or religion I’ve ever heard of. How would Jesus view this? 3rd it’s exactly the libertarians’ selfish dogma. American democracy is about not just freedom to make and keep all the money you can. It’s equally about justice. We all benefit from widespread justice (not just equal opportunity for a good education, health), but paying for government to enforce the Bill of Rights, leveling the field, ensuring a stable economy; all this helps you and the wealthy too. To ensure justice we have to pay for it. 4th it represents an extremely dull narrow life experience.
5th, It also makes my skin crawl when I see someone who is so pinched and petty and not generous. Just on a gut level.
“What really stinks most is that Republicans, by offering the better program, always win over a wide majority of established voters who actually know what is at stake and who have skin in the game, people who not only have payroll taxes deducted at work and who pay sales taxes on their purchases but who also pay annual federal and state income taxes. The tax-and-spend Democrats never can win that mainstream normative voting bloc who pay the bills, so they keep adding new populations of takers, new uninformed, non-invested voters to change the playing field. ”
Start by reading Dickens’ *Christmas Carol.*
Crimeny
What a ride it’s been 2020..well more like the “Trump Drain” 2016-2020. I’ve come to depend on your articles and the truths and wisdom you share. Your insight has helped me make some sense out of the many directions and turns that have occurred especially the last few months. I appreciate the various perspectives you offer and I’ve gained deeper thoughts about issues Ive been shallow with. Thank you for encouragement when things looked bleak and your cheerleading has been terrific!
You are welcome, Jon. I am beginning to believe that good will win over evil. You helped a lot. Thank you.
Thanks Betty
Jon…
At this point in time, things seem very foggy. Many questions. It’s difficult to envision a Washington environment having a similar congressional makeup but with Biden as president.
Following the “Trumpinization” of Washington Republicans and American politics, I can’t imagine what reception Biden might receive on seeking cooperation from his former colleagues.
Would McConnell be resolving to also make Biden a “one-term president”? Many of the same faces, but with changed attitudes?
In a way, the emerging election outcome might be healthy. Narrow vote margins and a continued Senatorial majority might shock the hubris out of those more liberal-minded.
Can Biden avoid a Washington taint of politics and maintain focus on the people? Could we judge that from his previous positions? And now, will the times change the man? Will Biden’s emotional depth inspire him to new heights?
It seems that COVID will be Job #1. Motivating us to lick COVID could establish him as a leader.
And for Trump, will he extend his popular influence in non-government roles? He might attain a position that maintains his voice, but without the power, would his people respond? I don’t think they’ll be content with reminiscing. Or, would they park him in the closet as a fond recollection?
And who will the 2020 Trump supporters turn to? Who of those “plenty of Trumps out there” will walk through that door?
And then, could any from those “plenty of Trumps”, or Biden himself, fulfill the needs of those millions of Trump voters? And, do all of this while parrying the advances of our international adversaries?
We live in interesting times.
Kind of pathetic to see you trying to justify your poor predictions by “i wrote this” and “I wrote that.” Just admit that you blew it, as did so many pollsters and pundits. Fewer and fewer people seem interested in your political writing–your shares are way, way down–so you might want to hang it up. You’re not very good at this.
I did admit it, I have no shame in being wrong as long as I was honest…maybe you should read the piece before you make a complete ass out of yourself…Your message is yet another reason why it’s so hard for people to accept rude and obnoxious people. you can’t even be civil in victory..Being an asshole is not a persuasive winning political position as the President is learning tonight.
Here’s an alternative (nightmarish) scenario: Trump remains a, if not the, main event. He declares himself President-In-Exile and says he will run again in 2024. He continues to tweet and the media continues to give him as much oxygen as they possibly can because he’s so “good” ($$$$$) for business. Even if his followers voted for him for many reasons, the fact appears to be that they love him — they love his insults and bombast and, yes, they lovehis lies. So no one else in the Republican Party can gain a foothold for the 2024 nomination — sorry Tom Cotton, Marco Rubio, and all the others chomping at the bit. Trump won’t leave any room for you, and you can’t possibly out-Trump him.
So Biden tries to govern but Mitch McConnell (who said he would make Obama a one-term President and functionally did so, denying him the chance to appoint a Supreme Court Justice to replace Scalia and hundreds of other judges to the Circuit an District Courts, not to mention thwarting DACA, immigration reform, climate change legislation, and on and on) prevents Biden from governing in any meaningful way. This allows Trump to run in 2024 saying Biden didn’t accomplish anything. And Biden probably doesn’t accomplish anything, because McConnell keeps Biden from getting the pandemic relief package all the economists say we need, thus ensuring a prolonged economic slump, and preventing us from getting the virus under control because McConnell won’t allow the Senate to approve funding for testing/contact tracing/etc. There will be continued layoffs of state and local government employees because McConnell won’t allow the Senate to approve funding for “blue” states and cities. And so on and so forth.
So another 4 years of what we’ve seen this past year. 2020 replaying on an endless loop. What fun. Of course, If DA Vance gets the grand jury to indict Trump, that will be a whole other sideshow sucking all the oxygen out of the room.
I prefer to stay in the now..the future is unknowable and never turns out to be what we think..just think of this week.
Extremely interesting blog today. It is my hope that you keep writing, and I hope your health is good. I’m rereading your book “Running to the Mountain.” It’s been decades. I laughed when I read about the local offering you his cat named “Claw” to rid your cabin of mice. The book reminds me of my visits to northern Wisconsin. It’s beautiful but the bugs are lethal.
Thanks Jean, I will certainly keep writing and my health is fine..
As a lifelong Democrat and political activist throughout my life, I agree with your take on the Democratic Party. We have to find a way to reconnect with working class men and women (White and Black and Latino) who have increasingly opted into Trumpism. We begin by acknowledging their values and concerns and addressing their needs. At the same time, we must unapologetically affirm the progressive values of our Party: equality, inclusiveness, fairness, and human rights with respect to healthcare, minority rights, women’s rights, LGBTQ rights, and economic justice. The bias and bigotry is real and has to be confronted with both assertiveness and compassion. On a practical level we have to stop allowing the Trumpists to frame the issues and put us on the defensive trying to prove them wrong. The “defund the police” debacle was the perfect example of that (and probably the reason my very moderate Congressman lost his seat.) We need to focus on values and what we are for much more than arguing and what we are against. In any case, again thank you for your perspective, wisdom, and humor.
I would hope when you put a picture of Robin up you would actually talk about her and go on about Biden
Yes, I know what I do…What’s the point? I don’t structure my pieces for what you would hope…..
Thank you for your level headed political writing. As I read some responses I just shook my head. I believe you’re right in saying this country is awakening. I feel like this election is split between our country regaining its moral compass or continuing down the road of greed and entitlement. I’ve taken your advice about watching or reading news twice a day and nothing after 7 pm. It has kept me sane especially as I enter yet another quarantine for a virus that some believe disappeared on November 4. Take care, and stay healthy and safe!
Tonight, it has become obvious that Biden has taken PA. All that needs to happen is for it to be called and then certified in 20 days.
Trump can do nothing about it. At this point Biden is up over 28,000 and growing. If Trump is wise, he’ll call off his legal challenges and concede. He can save lots of money he would need to pay lawyers in a failed attempt to challenge.
What a beautiful picture of a happy girl, with all the lights on. Thanks for that, I needed a smile
Thank you Jon for your continued insight and the interesting blog. When I first heard the call to “defund the Police”, it sounded a perfect recipe for lawlessness for any country and unfortunately, the liberals within the Democrats embraced the idea hoping to gain some momentum against the racial issues. Yes, Democrats have to put their house in order and feel the heartbeat of the people, if they want to heal the divisions and move forward as a nation.
Trump is a wounded tiger and will continue to be who he is and keep his base alive and we can expect disruption at every turn.
The next two plus months when Trump is still President is the real challenge and Covid-19 is still the burning issue. Will be interesting to see how Biden deal with the crisis without any support during this transition period.
Yet again, this is a brilliant piece. I actually read a number of your columns out loud to my husband often in the last many months, both about the horror of the unfolding pandemic, Cuomo/Trump and the election. You gave much comfort, more than you could know, and you were brave to call the election as you did, and so many of us were so thankful to read (translate: to hang onto!) your every word. This weekend is one of celebration, and Monday we will let our service to this nation begin, in order to heal, to help unite such disparate groups, to focus on good values, but first we must celebrate. Just wanted to THANK YOU for all your thoughts and how you express them,
Jon Katz, THANK YOU.