This morning, a blog reader wrote to ask me if I would consider moving to Portugal or Canada if the election didn’t turn out the way I wished.
I’ve never gotten so many messages offering to help me flee the country, from people who no longer even want to visit us. That is sad.
I told her I like this country.
Actually, I love this country.
It is always crazier than in other countries, especially Canada, which is too sensible for me.
But it is never boring and challenges me to consider my own values and humanity every day.
I feel alive here, and lately, very necessary.
I’m too old to move; I am proud to make my stand here. An American flag is on the way today from Amazon (fittingly, in an odd way.)
I want all the towheads riding around in their big trucks with their big flags to see that having a flag is not the exclusive property of any political party or politician; people like me are also patriots.
That is a symbol they will have to share, they can’t wave it for themselves.
I admit it; I feel sorry for men, especially young white men. I can’t help it, even though it’s a grotesque generalization to label them. They are having an awfully hard time now, and they are making sure we have one too.
I know some very wonderful white men, I should say, but I would still love to have the flag up for Election. Day.
I am a privileged white man, yet I can’t help but feel so many of the world’s problems – and the country’s – are caused by my species.
Sometimes I close my eyes and imagine a world without white men. It is daunting to think of a world without war, giant corporations, economic or political domination, climate denial, violence against women, crowded prisons, and sometimes violent police.
This would also mean a world without Donald Trump and his cronies, Mr. Trump is himself a powerful argument for white men to get out of the way.
He seems to think he can halt time.
In a sense, I see the election as the last stand of the embattled, aggrieved, displaced white man.
Their great spokesperson and champion is about to be the next displaced member of this tribe if you believe every single exhaustive and respected poll, which I do this year.
President Whineass becomes Citizen Whineass.
The pollsters have learned a lot since 2016.
Remember what you went through in 2016? I believe that the MAGA people are about to go through something like it, and I don’t wish that on anyone.
If it happens, be kind. It could happen to all of us.
Trump has prepared his followers – and himself – for everything but defeat. (The rats are jumping off the ship, says Politico, hundreds of Trump political employees are quitting their jobs and looking for work.)
I think we all understand without being told that this is just one major battle in a long hard Civil War, another one. On Wednesday or Thursday, we will still be reeling, exhausted, and divided.
Trump won’t be going away anytime soon, and neither will Trumpism.
But a new America is rising out of this hard and grinding conflict and making itself visible in the long lines at polling stations all over the country.
I like the way that new America looks, and I want to be around to see it. Lots of women, Blacks, brown and yellow people.
The most interesting political story of the day for me: How Stacey Abrams convinced Biden to take Georgia – and her – seriously, by Ryan Lizza.
Abrams has emerged as a major national Democratic political figure, and one of the most intelligent and interesting. Thanks in great measure to her, Biden is leading in the polls in Georgia, another shock.
Abrams, who ran for Governor of Georgia two years ago, is a major figure in the new national movement to fight the blatant minority voter suppression that has returned to the South.
Today’s FiveThirtyEight election report, the last polling prediction of the election, was published this morning.
I noticed that the forecast headline now says “clearly favored” for Biden rather than “favored,” as it usually does. That does not mean there isn’t a path for Trump, but he would need a major polling error in his favor to win.
I don’t think he’s getting that big a gift this time.
Nate Silver, the editor of the site, likes to say Trump’s chances of winning are roughly the same as the odds that it’s raining in downtown Los Angeles. I looked, and it does rain there.
Downtown L.A. has about 36 rainy days per year or about a one-in-ten shot of a rainy day.
This is a time to see past the noise, smoke, and clutter and stay focused and strong.
Pennsylvania, where Biden is said to be five points ahead of Trump, is important in terms of the electoral college. It is unlikely either candidate will have enough electoral votes to win by the end of the night.
It should be apparent, though, who the likely winner is.
FiveThirtyEight simulates the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often.
The sample of 100 outcomes below gives a good model of the range of scenarios their model thinks is possible.
As of today, Trump wins 10 in 100 outcomes. Biden wins 90 in 100.
Trump is out of time for anything but a small miracle, or perhaps a big one.
I have never tried to imaging a world without white men. I am glad some of you are around …
Me too
Yes, my son and son in law are two of the finest white men I know. They are the opposite of Trump and his ilk in every possible way. When I see white men in huge trucks with Trump flags trying to run a Biden bus and numerous cars off the road it makes me appreciate what wonderful men I know and have in my family. I also wonder about how they rationize their decisions . A bunch of trump loyalists thought it would be a good idea to literally block traffic in New York and New Jersey. And that’s supposed to convince people to vote for trump?? Yes , disrupt lives and schedules to get them on your side!! And make sure the MAGA logo is displayed. I’m sorry but they’re not the brightest bulb in the box.
Thanks Pamela..
A week from now, it will all be over for another 4 years. I can put my ‘538’ bookmark at the bottom of the list where it belongs. Hopefully I will never have to run to the tv mute button to silence another scene from another trump vanity rally ever again! That would be nice:-) And hopefully the losing side will have blown off all their steam and settled in for another 4 long years of blaming and name calling….’cause that will never change. The punditry will switch from breathless horse race calling to Monday morning quarterbacking, which is way easier to watch….It’s like you said, life will go on.
As for white men in the US, I don’t think they are the problem, I think the white men who make a lot of money by feeding their grievance are the problem. Chief amoung them, one DJ Trump, hopefully soon to be citizen trump.
thank you so much for all these calming, grounding posts. i feel like you’re the only sensible, trustworthy person in all of this mess.
A world without white men? You make it sound like white men are responsible for all wars & violence toward women, etc, Long before white men left Europe, wars abounded among the non-white men of Asia, Africa & North & South America. Horrible treatment existed all over the globe as well. White men didn’t invent these things! We all flawed, imperfect, greedy and prideful humans no matter the color of our skin or other physical characteristics or culture.
White men invented modern warfare, mechanized it, and used it to make money, yes, I stand by that. No African or South American tribe ever mounted a war like the Civil War, World War I, and World War II which slaughtered tens of millions of people. No African tribes colonialized civilizations, saved and exploited native people..I think this is all so…And yes, we are all flawed, imperfect greedy, and prideful..Trump is all about white men and keeping them in charge..So I do stand by that, although thanks for your dissent, which I respect..The Civil war was all about white men keeping slaves..
Jon…
1. Race. I believe accurate judgements involving race can be made only at an individual level. A person’s race is just one attribute that goes into making up an individual, along with their genetics, their ethnicity, their religion and culture, their upbringing, their education, the times they lived in, and their social influences.
Group stereotypes just don’t hack it. Like the other attributes, race cannot be generalized except in someone’s mind. Every group is made of individuals, and I’m willing to give someone a fair assessment.
Resulting from my past influences, I have biases. But I work continually to overcome them and live up to what I believe.
2. Polls. I just read the 11/1 NY Times article, “Why You Can’t Rely on Election Forecasts”. The author points out that there are good reasons not to believe in election polls and simulations. But there are also good reasons to believe in Americans.
3. Opposition. Since after George Washington’s time, there has been political opposition. At times, it came to violence. But living in this maelstrom seems different from reading about it.
Past political disagreements I studied were issue-based. I don’t recall political opposition being so personality-based. Even though Andrew Johnson was not well liked, he came to power at the start of Reconstruction and played a major role in shaping it. While our current presidency has brought changes, it’s difficult to see any ideologies driving them.
Certainly one should be judged only on his her individual acts, nothing denied them because of what group they have been a part of. But groups do have traits. Otherwise there would be no sociology or anthropology. It’s one of the joys.
Is it inaccurate to say , just to be ridiculous, French bread is delicious, or food is the french’s god.
But I like your sense of fairness.
This photo is stunning!What a capture!
I have had the good fortune to meet very decent white and colored men and women from the USA and they were a good representation of what I always believed of that great country. This is also the case for the rest of the world where these decent white men and woman exist and in co-habitation with non-white fellow beings. They are part of what makes our existence so special. However, I agree that the white men also contributed to some of our sad history – colonizations and world wars – that have left lasting wounds that will never heal.