30 October

One Man’s Truth: How Mr. Trump Pissed Off Covid-19

by Jon Katz

More and more, I’m coming to believe the coronavirus is a conscious virus,  smarter than Dr. Fauci imagined, and is stalking our President as a punishment for his arrogance, ineptitude, and disregard for any human life other than his own.

It just won’t leave him alone. Every time he thinks he’s got it beat, it comes around from behind and bites him in the ass. It could be funny, but it isn’t.

In my fantasy – I have written fiction –  the virus appears initially to give him a chance to learn leadership and grow as a President. It was traveling around the world, testing and playing with leaders and governments.

Trump blew it off – nothing could get in the way of his re-election – so it decided to teach him the lesson it has been teaching many other smug and foolish countries.

It raced across the United States,  crippled his precious economy, and gave the Democrats a miraculous issue to campaign on. The virus still had some hope that he would wake up. He didn’t.

He said the virus was a hoax, another Democratic and fake news, and elitist plot to make him look bad and defeat him in November. The virus could hardly believe it when the President of the United States suggested drinking Chlorox as a cure. How insulting.

So the virus sailed right through the most protected building on the earth and wound it’s way into the White House and infected him and his family.

For a day or two, he got very sick. But his life was spared miraculously in the hope that he had learned his lesson and would fight to keep others from getting sick and dying.

The lesson he learned, he said, was that he was tough, and the virus was no big deal and would soon go away. Masks, he insists, were for sissies like Joe Biden.

A normal leader would have gotten the message, but President Trump thinks he is smarter and tougher than the pandemic, which really seems to have pissed the virus off. He keeps having trouble with strong women.

She is slapping him up and downside the head and flipping him up in the air like a dog with a hedgehog. Since we screwed it up, she decided to change the country all by herself.

Cults have this Kool-Aid – remember Jim Jones – thing, and his supporters came out to cheer him on by the tens of thousands, happy to catch the virus if it supported their leader and pleased him. They called it the Superspreader Campaign.

(Sometimes we all have to make sacrifices for the good of our country.)

But Donald Trump doesn’t learn lessons, so getting him sick failed.  By now, the pandemic was steamed and getting frustrated. What would she have to do to get his attention and respect?

She responded by sickening his closest aides and a bunch of his followers and humiliating him.

That didn’t work either, so the infection came up with something even more diabolical. It decided to strike record numbers of new people in every battleground state he desperately needs to win.

Even as Air Force One pulled up to his rallies, local hospitals were filling up with sick people, and newspaper headlines were all about COVID-19, not him. Boy, the virus knows how to hurt.

COVID-19 is also picking off selected MAGA fans who brave crowds and cold and heat and sickness to buy campaign shirts and hats and shout Mussolini style threats to jail his opponents.

It’s new role – following the President into key battleground states in the final days of the election to remind the sane and the rationale that it is real and that he is still unwilling to respect it or deal with it.

That worked a bit. At one rally Thursday, he said it might not be a bad idea to wear masks if “you get close to people.” Not good enough, I fear.

I wish he would learn his lesson, however late. God knows what she will do next. Maybe she will decide to save our country from him and her both.

It sounds bizarre until you think about it. The moral is don’t piss off or dismiss COVID-19. It’s listening.

___

I was interested in reading that Americans are more excited about this election than any other recorded polling history election. Nine-four percent of registered voters told an Economist poll this week that voting for president this year is “very important.”

For all the sturm and drang about this election, that is good news for any democracy. The number of voters who said they are more excited to vote than usual is 15 percentage points higher among Republicans and 27 points higher among Democrats than four years ago.

The share of  Democrats who say they’re more enthusiastic about voting this year is about nine percentage points higher than the Republicans’ share who say the same.

The polls have remained steady all week. Pennsylvania is the focus of attention now; the contest is close with most polls showing Biden with a small lead, anywhere between four and eight points.

Pennsylvania is important.

It looks as if the Democrats will take control of the Senate.

Does Trump still have a chance to win the election? Here are the odds according to Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.

We’re now less than five days away from Election Day, and Joe Biden leads in both national and state polls. At this point, President Trump needs a big polling error in his favor if he’s going to win. Although if you were just looking at national polls, the error doesn’t need to be as big as you might think. Take Pennsylvania, the state our forecast currently thinks is most likely to decide the election. Biden doesn’t have much extra cushion in polls there, so a 2016 magnitude polling error could deliver the state to Trump. Remember, Trump has a meaningful chance of winning the election, per our forecast — a little worse than the chances of rolling a 1 on a six-sided die and a little better than the chances that it’s raining in downtown Los Angeles.”

Biden is ahead in Wisconsin,  Georgia, and North Carolina, which would signal a seismic shift in the Southeast. He is close in Texas, but most seasoned political analysts think Trump will win one of the most conservative states.

Biden is also ahead in Florida, a key state for both candidates, but the margin is too narrow to be certain. Florida election counts are messy and chaotic.

As of today, Biden is favored to win the election. FiveThirtyEight simulates the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often. The sample of 100 outcomes below offers a good idea of the range of scenarios their model believes possible:

Trump wins 11 in 100. Biden wins 89 in 100.

Despite the President’s inaccurate rambling about it, one thing to remember is that national federal elections are often not resolved for a day or more after an Election. It is unlikely we will know who won for several days.

Trump is sure to challenge any unfavorable election result, but if Biden wins and his victory margin is as large as it appears to be now, Trump can’t prevail.

At this point, I would recommend choosing one news source that you trust and listening to it once in the morning and once in the early evening—no news after 7 p.m. for me, time to transition to rest and peace.

Partisans on both sides and the journalists who cover them will get increasingly shrill and hysterical over the next four days. We don’t have to jump up and down with them.

I strongly urge anyone with anxiety issues to stay off of social media. It’s a cesspool out there in normal times; it’s gone nuclear now. My rule is that I never argue my beliefs or opinions on social media, ever. My opinions are my own; they don’t need the approval of others or their condemnation.

Somehow, people on social media have gotten the idea that everybody else wants to know what they think. Opinions have a right to life on their own.

I’ve seen nothing to make me believe there is an upset coming, although anything is possible. The Biden campaign seems confident, well-organized, and taking nothing for granted.

The Trump campaign is in chaos between money troubles, virus outbreaks, a lunatic candidate, and the fact that every swing state is experiencing record or near-record increases in coronavirus infections. At the same time, Trump travels the country, infecting as many people as possible, a novel way of showing his leadership skills.

That’ll show all those pansies with masks.

Trump was mired in 2016, and he believes what worked for him then will work for him now. This is yet another chance to see if science can do better than superstition.

I read the polls, and the new ones are absolutely nothing like the ones in 2016 in terms of detail, reach, and back-stopping.

 

11 Comments

  1. This would be a good year for humans to learn how to hibernate! I’ve done my patriotic duty. I voted early by mail and my county Board of Elections has verified that they have my ballot. I’d like to sleep through the rest of the election chaos and maybe wake up around Thanksgiving Day. I ALWAYS stay off of social media, I don’t answer my phone unless I recognize the caller as a friend, and most of my USMail goes straight into the recycling bin. The only TV News that I watch is on PBS and I even often change channels to a cooking show instead. I browse the NYTimes online, mostly to keep up with what’s going on with the pandemic. I also read the science articles and an occasional recipe. But even with my head fairly thoroughly in the sand, I feel bombarded by the anger and fear being generated during this election. I’m personally not angry and I’m not particularly afraid (at least not afraid of Trump or Biden – the coronavirus scares me some). But I am sad that our country has descended into such fractious screaming at each other. I happen to have friends of various political persuasions and I am worried that, in spite of our efforts not to be, we are being pulled apart by the divisions in our country.

  2. I wish Trump would stay out of Wisconsin. We are in trouble. It was impossible to get medical help in March and April. Video conferencing isn’t the same as a doctor’s examination. And now the doctors are backed up. I had to wait months for a much needed surgical procedure. And the rural hospitals don’t have large intensive care units. They are lucky to have one or two beds. And much of Wisconsin is still rural. Even if you are a Trump supporter please wear your masks people. People are dying.

  3. Every time Trump says we’ve turned the corner on the virus, I’m reminded how delusional or how much of a liar he is. We’ve rounded so many corners, we’re back to where we started, only now it’s much worse. I’m from Wisconsin and the positive test rates and deaths from Covid in this state just keep increasing by the day. No wonder Biden is ahead here. You are right. This virus is like a heat-seeking missile that keeps following Trump. It’s going to find him on November 3.

  4. Hi Jon. Taking your recommendation and limiting my intake of election spin. It was driving me crazy, who was ahead, who was voting early, which party had more voter registration, what is the margin of error, blah blah blah! I will be reading, and my viewing will be Netflix , Disney, PBS, and maybe some QVC and local news and weather. I voted a couple of weeks ago, and the only thing I can do at this point is hope enough people vote to give Joe Biden the presidency. Your perspective has helped keep me sane. Thank you!

  5. As always well said and well spoken. Thank you for being here for us to read and relish. I also am in love with your donkeys.

  6. Jon…

    YOUR FANTASY
    If COVID were conscious, as an irony it would be like Trump – craving attention, and on being denied, throwing a tantrum and taking eternal vengeance.

    CHALLENGING THE ELECTION RESULTS
    Trump will challenge the election; that’s for sure. The question is which issue(s) he will choose. Likely that mail-in ballots will be involved. And he’s lowering the threshold for legal conflict. This week, he declared that all the ballots must be counted by election day.

    In that case, watch for Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In a NY Times article that summarizes mail-in/absentee ballot counting by state*, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – two battleground states – don’t start counting ballots until election day. Michigan begins just 10 hours earlier.

    *How Quickly Will Your Absentee Vote Be Counted? A State-by-State Timeline
    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/10/13/us/politics/when-votes-counted.html

  7. Millions around the globe are closely following the drama unfolding in the USA. What happens in the USA touches the whole world and apprehension (bed wetting?) is very much part of the waiting game.
    Trump was legitimately voted in as the President and as the saying goes, people got what they deserved (and voted for). It is tough to accept, but with all due respect, that is the unfortunate truth. Now, with the choice again at their doorstep, hopefully, it will be the choice millions around the world are hoping for.
    Although the Biden campaign is confident and Trump’s is in chaos, anything is possible as the American electoral system, in my opinion, has too many loopholes – with the Electoral College playing a defining role to disregard the popular vote. It is not a standard ‘one person, one vote’ system followed by other democracies. On top of that too many institutions, including the courts, can put the finger on the scale to change an outcome. 2010 and 2016 are good examples of how things can go wrong when the majority vote can be pushed aside.

  8. Donald Trump will almost certainly lose if all of the votes are counted.
    Too late to mail your ballots now, so find a drop box.
    But the enthusiasm youbdescribe is real, as is the number of newly registered voters, and the early votes already cast.
    The people are now too engaged to allow democracy to fail.

  9. This statement explains so much. ” People on social media have gotten the idea that everybody else wants to know what they think.”
    Why suddenly everyone (thinks they) understand the Constitution and think their literalist reading of the First Amendment gives them the right to avoid wearing masks, for example, havent looked deeply enough to realize that a sovereign’s “police power” inherently overrides (balanced by the courts) Constitutional rights in emergencies, like pandemics, invasion by foreign troops, released hazmat , … (See William J. Novak, in particular of two of his books: an early monograph called Intellectual Origins of the State Police Power (1989), and The People’s Welfare: law and Regulation in Nineteenth-Century America (1996)).
    There’s a sad side to this too which is that the people who think others want to hear their opinion (like myself here, ahem) has no one else who want to hear it. Many white males feel economically and emotionally threatened as Jon has said here many times. I just did not realize before 2016 HOW MANY. https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/10/white-men-coronavirus-trump-approval/616780/?fbclid=IwAR2NyI-F40RKtlbMithMewz8ytmSr111LRN0wgLOaB7Mg8jnA4x9sphHESQ

  10. Thanks, Jon. I’m trying to write new lyrics the Pirate King song in Pirates of Pensace with the King being Trump. So far, I have only “I am a Virus King, I am a Virus king, and it, it is a Curious thing to be a Virus King” I hope to have it finished by election day, but unlike Trump, I can’t assure you that I shall have it written by that time.

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