(Friends, as you may have noticed, this column has shifted to a different phase as the election gets closer. I’m focusing on daily summaries of what you need to know that day, purged of partisan and media hype. I find the cable networks increasingly hysterical, and even the better newspapers are prone to drama and some fear-mongering for fear of losing all their new subscribers. I hope to do better and be useful, and perhaps spare some worry. The more people trawl around, the more anxious and confused they will be.)
Today is the final Presidential debt between Trump and Biden.
Expect Trump to keep beating his Hunter Biden drum and try to be more civil and focused. Expect to be nice.
I think the Hunter Biden ploy is both desperate and foolish. Hunter Biden doesn’t create jobs, halt pandemics, or raise or lower taxes.
Who really cares what his alleged laptop e-mails contain? Biden will be circumspect and “decent,” his main job is not to rock the boat.
Trump is trying to replicate the FBI’s last-minute “October Surprise” about Hillary Clinton’s e-mails in 2016, which was believed to affect that election.
The Hunter initiative isn’t working outside of his base. Rudy Guiliani’s leak to the tabloid New York Post about Hunter Biden’s laptop having some controversial e-mails isn’t credible or documented.
And apart from Fox News, the mainstream media isn’t going wild, as they did with Hillary’s e-mails. And the Fox News audience does not need persuading.
Do debates matter at this stage? Probably not.
As I’ve said all week, Biden is running out of time, he retains a double-digit lead in the national polls, and in recent days, his state polls have been strong. Generally speaking, with 15 days before election day, things don’t (can’t) change much.
In one sense, the stakes are big, but not really.
This debate is the last major opportunity for Trump to show a saner and more presidential side to the very few undecided voters who remain.
Trump is hoping for Biden to say something stupid, which he has a history of doing. But Trump made such a point of branding Biden senile, that he actually looks and sounds great, even when he isn’t.
Trump has also managed to deeply offend many elderly voters with his assaults on Biden’s competence.
Trump has scheduled a score of MAGA rallies up to Election Day, convinced this will rally his supporters and push him to another surprise victory. More talking to the choir.
More than 42 million people have already voted, and there is little evidence that there are any significant numbers of people who have not made up their minds yet.
I’m betting Trump will lose control tonight and whine about another strong “biased” woman moderator and scream about Hunter Biden’s laptop. In the process, he will lose more women, independent and moderate voters.
Perhaps he can be restrained for at least a few minutes.
As he has been for some time, Biden will be careful and stick to his windy policy positions.
If it were me, and I were Biden, I would tell Trump that I don’t want to bring our children into our nasty politics, let’s talk about the virus. As the Democrats are learning about Donald Trump, it’s smart to not take the bait and let him define the narrative.
This is an election where there are critical issues, and people are paying attention for once. Biden will (certainly should) take advantage of that.
Trump’s mike may be muted for us, but he can still shout at Biden on stage, and Biden will be able to hear him. Trump will try to rattle him, force him off balance; I think Biden has been around long enough for him to handle it, as he did the first time.
By and large, the courts have stayed out of most state voting disputes.
Those Supreme Court votes have been 4-4, which could change once Amy Coney Barrett is on the court. Everyone is watching to see what Biden finally says about stacking the court, that might be tonight.
The last two weeks of this campaign will be incredibly stressful.
It will take some effort for many people to stay sane.
I’d pay attention to polling averages and shy away from “insider” analysis about how each campaign is feeling. They rarely have a better sense of things than the best polls.
Remember that the polling for the 2020 election has been thoroughly revamped and remarkably stable for months.
Biden has a substantial lead in national and state polls to the extent that reliably Republican states like Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas could conceivably go Democratic.
In our divided country, the idea that this is even possible is quite surprising.
Trump would need the race to tighten far beyond the point where a normal polling error could close the gap.
If I were those people arguing and posting on Facebook and Twitter all day, I would stop. You’re only making yourself and other people crazy or angry.
I am especially proud of the fact that I have never argued politics on Facebook or Twitter, it is a hopeless and narcissistic enterprise. You’re not doing it for the public good, you’re doing it for yourself.
People arguing on social media have no right to complain about being stressed or fearful. They are enabling themselves.
The people supporting Trump and the people who hate him are not open to dialogue and unpersuaded by argument.
Time and history will answer why someone as reprehensible as Leave them to i. Trump was supported so blindly by so many people. And at the moment, it doesn’t matter. If people really care about this election, they will go out and do something.
There is lots to do.
Arguing on social media is about as useful as standing on your head in the road in rush hour traffic.
I’ve read a lot of these social media posts, they just feed each other anger, fear, and hate. Buy a turkey for an out-of-work and struggling family for Thanksgiving instead.
It’s important to remember that this is 2020, not 2016. Joe Biden is not Hillary Clinton; Trump has a record to defend; he isn’t just the rabble-rousing outsider. And his pandemic record is not a good one.
His campaign has been a catastrophe (Republican Pollster Frank Luntz said it’s the “worst campaign in history”), and Biden’s has been a model of discipline, restraint, and focus.
All that money isn’t hurting him either. The Trump campaign is just about out of cash. Biden has plenty of money.
Today, Biden is strongly favored to win the election. FiveThirtyEight has simulated the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often. Their sample of 100 outcomes offers the best idea of the range of scenarios their respected model thinks is possible.
That model found that Trump wins 12 out of 100 outcomes, Biden wins 88 out of 100.
One interesting study was published in the New York Times today; it shows that both candidates face a drastically changed electorate. Trump’s base has been relentlessly shrinking.
The cohort of non-college-educated white voters – they gave Trump just enough of a margin to win the election in 2016 – has been in a long term decline, while both minority voters and white college-educated voters have steadily increased.
That means his much-cherished base, on which he is counting to win the election, has dropped by more than five million in the past four years, while the number of minority and white college-educated voters has collectively increased by more than 13 million in the same period.
In likely swing states, the changes far outstrip Trump’s narrow 2016 margins.
Democrat strategists have taken to calling their often gloomy and fearful supporters “bedwetters,” and I did that for a while also, being a former bedwetter myself.
Lots of people don’t dare to believe Trump might lose. I’d work on getting used to that idea.
But I think it is important for liberals, progressives, and Democrats to understand that America is a work in progress, and the population is far from static. It isn’t a great mystery as to why Trump is in trouble.
It’s because we are changing, and in particular, women are changing.
A diverse population is inevitable, and the Republicans have put themselves in an awful spot, thinking they can somehow stop it. I see it the way Ruth Bader Ginsburg saw it, one-step-at-a-time, it won’t be simple, easy, or quick.
In just a few years, whites will be a minority in America. Nothing Trump can do will stop it, even if no immigrants ever come here again.
The President’s campaign is hoping that a massive voter registration campaign underway for some years will overcome those losses. That is unlikely.
That’s it for today, talk to you tomorrow.
I do so enjoy your no-nonsense musings! I have been following you since you started fixing up the farm. Thank you for persevering and being a voice of reason during these times. I am (or was) one of the hysterical people posting on twitter and facebook. You are absolutely correct that it is for nobody but myself. Hard to have that mirror held up but there it is. It is nice to have it put into perspective. See you tomorrow!
Thanks Brenda, I appreciate this..
You have a Kia typo this is 2020not 2010
I like your post except when u said your not posting politics on FB ?
Isn’t this a political post ? I think it’s fine to start your opinion and I also doubt I’ve changed anyone’s vote but it’s too big a deal to do nothing
No, Kaye, I said I wasn’t arguing with people on Facebook. You might want to read it more carefully. My blog posts on Facebook every day. An argument is different from an opinion piece. I don’t argue with people on social media. And no, I find no date typos in the column.
Why couldn’t Trump lose?
There have been nine (9) one-term presidencies (Grover Cleveland’s two non-consecutive terms are not included); three of these came after Nixon’s resignation. Ford and Carter were the only consecutive one-term presidents. Later came Bush ’41.
Since three of the four presidents following Nixon were one-term, an increased post-Nixon scrutiny of presidential performance might have played in. But also, Ford’s pardon of Nixon, Carter’s stagflation, and Bush’s economy were influential.
Carter also endured the Iran Hostage Crisis, the Russian invasion of Afghanistan, and the US-led Olympics Boycott. Before the 1980 election, a well-educated but cynical workmate confided, “I’m voting for Reagan because, if nothing else, Carter is unlucky.”
I believe that our modern one-termers were better than our likely current one. C-SPAN’s book, The Presidents, ranks our modern one-termers as #25, #26, and #21 respectively. (Trump was not ranked because his term was in progress.)
Historians might not mention Trump’s character any more that they note Andrew Johnson’s. But they will surely cite his pandemic’s losses and its economic aftermath. If Trump were re-elected, historians will certainly ask, “What were they thinking?”
I wish I could feel as sanguine! I have no tv and no mainstream media subscriptions. I read the Guardian and a few blogs that are credible to me: The Conversation, some things in my field, and a few emails from politicians I have worked for. My information mostly comes from my home care nurse days, where I went into people’s homes to do very technical stuff and heard a depth of disgust and hatred that most people don’t show outside of their living rooms. There were a lot more people saying Trump was doing what needs to be done, that they had waited all their lives for a leader like this, than I believe the polls are capturing. I definitely observed people lying to pollsters, it made them feel clever and that they were putting something over on someone. They also truly have no problem with lying. They see a dog eat dog world (sorry, dogs) where it’s your fault if you get taken in by a lie. They lovr their sources that tell them about conspiracies. What scares me is that there are so many more than I thought there were. I thought these were just the lunatic fringe. There are a LOT of people who really can’t do critical thinking or empathy. They cannot put themselves in someone else’s shoes. I have some ideas about why, but that’s not for here.