Today and over the next few weeks, you’ll see, hear and read a number of things that may disturb or upset you regarding the upcoming Presidential election. I’ve learned while writing this column just how frightened many people are by this President and his efforts to disrupt the election.
I was dismissive of this fear at first, being a male animal, but I grasp it now, and it isn’t funny or something to be brushed off. I know from my own experience that fear ought never to be made light of.
Trump has frightened me at times as well, I am fortified by the very rational and supported belief that he will lose this election, I’ve believed that for months.
The poison that Donald Trump has injected into our civic life and the degree to which he knowingly frightens the citizens he has sworn to protect is perhaps the worst thing he has done and his greatest lie is that he is working hard to serve them.
This is a time to be strong and thoughtful about what’s happening. We are not facing the Apocalypse, just an ugly representation of it.
In terms of anxiety, this is the most important time, the loudest, most confusing, and most heated. You will hear a lot of things that are disturbing, and yes, frightening.
The media is full of stories this week – there will be more – about a rise in Republican registration, a tightening of some of the polls, yet another attempt by Trump and his supporters to drudge up dubious and totally unproven accusations against Hunter Biden, all kinds of histrionics and whining about tomorrow’s debate.
At 8 a.m. the New York Times reported that Republicans were jubilant about their rising voter registrations, two hours later they revealed that Democrats are starting to drool about a Biden Landslide.
If you’re nervous about something you see or read, just wait a few minutes.
The President’s rather desperate attempts to rouse his base to frenzy in the shrinking chance they will save him have failed and will not work for him.
This yo-yoing will be happening every day until during, and beyond the November 3rd election. Your choice is to either be a human yo-yo or settle down and be careful about what you think and what you read.
It’s a time to be gentle with ourselves, and also to be well, not overwhelmingly, informed.
It’s important to understand the media. Now, and with few exceptions, the mass media, including Fox News and CNN and MSNBC are owned by vast corporations whose stockholders are thrilled by the election, as fear draws viewers and viewers to make money.
They will do everything within their vast power to keep you frightened and engaged. Billions of dollars depend on it.
The respectable journalists, haunted by 2016, are making sure every possible trouble is recorded and shared. They don’t want to be blamed if it happens again. And the reporters can’t tell you what they can tell me: Trump is losing badly.
The cable networks live off of trouble and promote it whenever they can.
If the reporters and commentators were permitted to say what they really think, almost to a one they would say the election is, for all practical purposes over.
Yes, the final debate will have some significance, but in this election, very few people are still undecided and Trump seems to have persuaded himself that turning himself into Godzilla will turn the tide. I don’t quite get that. Let’s see.
To understand why Joseph Biden will win the election, check out this interview, with the wife of a New Jersey police officer who died of Covid-19. This is something America needs, that Trump just can’t do.
Trump will need a lot more than some half-baked story about Hunter Biden to wash away the pandemic, the economy, and his own spectacular incompetence as a leader.
The coronavirus is stalking him like a viral zombie, popping up all over the country to mock and haunt him. It wouldn’t surprise me if he fainted and keeled over during the debate.
But here’s what is actually happening and is relevant. Speaking only for myself, I stay in the now, I don’t worry much about the future. I can’t control it or predict it, so what’s the point?
I’ll skip the circus and get the reality.
You’ll be hearing a lot about Hunter Biden:
Joe Biden will handle the Hunter Biden assault as he has been doing, mostly by ignoring it and focusing on the coronavirus.
Nobody cares about Hunter Biden at this point. Biden has been strong and wise in not taking the bait. He will keep raising the President’s bungling of the virus. Trump will find a way to shout at him and look bad doing it.
Biden knows better than to walk into the trap of making the election about the candidate’s children.
Today’s other hysteria is hat Battleground states like Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania have seen a spike in Republican voter registration numbers. I don’t know why this is surprising.
Party registration is a notoriously unreliable indicator of whether people will actually go to the polls and vote, and Trump campaign officials are desperate to spread any good news about their candidate. Personally, I’m not the least bit surprised that Republican voter registration might be up in those states, so is Democrat voter registration.
Today’s FiveThirtyEight forecast says Biden is favored to win the election. The race was simulated 40,000 times to see who wins most often. The sample of 100 outcomes finds that Trump wins 12 times out of 100 and Biden wins 87 times out of 100.
That is by far the most important statistic of the day.
And the number is stunningly bad for the President and good for Biden. As a betting man, I will take those odds any day two weeks away from an election.
As of this writing, nearly 30 million Americans have already voted and at this point, Trump could win every single battleground state (which he is very unlikely to do) and still lose the Electoral College by a wide margin.
Trump’s biggest disasters – his awful first debate and his getting sick – are behind him. I would expect his poll numbers to settle unless he manages to screw something else up.
In the coming weeks, the race will of course tighten as it gets closer and the voters who have not yet voted become even more engaged.
In addition, conservative and Republican voters will be happy that a new and very conservative Supreme Court Justice will be approved.
That should bring the President another Bump.
It will also give those white, older voters who registered a good reason to stay home and skip the lines on election day. They will have already gotten what they wanted.
Trump will become more desperate and hysterical these next days and weeks, and the corporate media will join in the hysteria and alarm-sounding and fear-mongering.
They will make a lot of money off of that, as they have been for four years. They will shatter your peace and ruin your sleep if you let them.
If I were making suggestions to anxious people, I would consider picking one single news source you trust and avoiding the others. FiveThirtyEight is by far the best and most accurate source of polling information.
That’s where I go to understand what is really happening out there in the real world, far from the Washington and media circus on cable news.
Think of the next few weeks as a roller coaster ride, things will go up and down, back and forth. I am seeing nothing to challenge my belief that Trump will lose the election, and by a substantial margin.
The big problem for Trump is that he seems to have gone off the rails, attacking everyone who comes in front of him, from Dr. Fauci to Biden’s son to his own cabinet members and FBI director to CBS’s Lesley Stahl, and starting tomorrow, NBC’s Kristen Welker, the final debate moderator.
He really doesn’t like strong women questioning him.
And that further alienates the strong suburban women he is trying to woo. My longstanding prediction about women stands: they will do him in, his exile will be in Mar-A-Largo, where he can spin conspiracy theories to the end of his days.
The debate Thursday is a dwindling opportunity – perhaps the last – for Trump to erase the impression he’s been working to create that he is a psychopath off his meds.
It is unlikely to change lots of minds.
My best advice to those of you who are frightened is to take care of yourselves. Don’t chase the news all day. Read and watch light and gentle books and movies.
Go to bed at the same time every night, and no news of any kind after 7 p.m.
I believe in democracy, as ugly as it sometimes is. I believe that is what patriotism means.
Jon, I’ve experienced married-m family members with mental illness and all I can think of is that Trump sounds and looks like someone on the edge of being admitted to a mental hospital but for the fact that he at the moment president of the United States. he throws dirt at everyone, thinking it will bring them down, accusing Biden as he is, is no-one NOT thinking about ‘pussygate’ his affairs with Daniels and the other woman who came forward prior to his election. Does no-one not relate to his milking the US govt. out of his tax money he owes or the rebates his companies have been given by the US govt.? Does no-one relate to why he ingratiated himself with Putin? Business, as usual, it shouldn’t be connected to politics but Trump had no moral qualms about this happening as he wanted to put a humungous Trump hotel in Russia, which didn’t work out. He slanders other people to take the heat off himself.
He is a sociopath. And voters are going to go to the polls to vote for a sociopath? Fake news, a term he’s coined. He himself is nothing but fake news. Look at his face, hear his words. And then decide if another four years of mental illness in a president is what they want.
Sandy Proudfoot
Wise, Sandy, he also strikes me as coming apart…sad and scary..
Having worked in inpatient mental health facilities, I will say that, partially, you are correct. He is like someone who may be committed for treatment but isn’t kept because he is criminal, not insane. He is more like a narcissistic abuser whose family has to go into hiding to escape his tactics, never feeling safe again.
I don’t get the support of other elected officials, unless he has gathered dirt on each and every one of them and has told them. Not wanting to be another Hunter Biden, they remain quiet, a loyal lapdog.
Hopefully we see the end on inauguration day. It won’t really end there because healing will take forever. But we can start to take those steps.
great column jon-hope many take your advice to heart and save theirs
Good advice Jon! Thank you for your continued level headed writing during this roller coaster ride. Blessings to you and Maria!
I greatly appreciate your comments as well as your insights into how the political news industry works. I am renewing my determination to lay the news aside except for one source.
Jon: I’m glad you’re watching FiveThirtyEight and I’m glad you’re breaking down their results so their data can easily be understood. As you advised, I checked it out. There’s something about it that’s just too confusing for me to understand. To my untrained eye, it’s not user friendly.
Yes, your suggestions are good and make sense. As for the upcoming debate, I plan to watch it strictly for entertainment purposes. I simply can’t take Trump seriously anymore. Calling Dr. Fauci a disaster was the final straw. If Trump could somehow manage to remain calm and focused without interrupting during this debate, I could see him winning over those few undecideds. But this madness festering inside of him will surface and he won’t be able to resist a nasty confrontation – even if they cut his mic. That first debate was like watching Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. What a fiasco!
Jon…
Thank you for your persistent revelations about the nature of the media. Coming from a person of your professional background, this is the most useful information you have provided. Since you shared this, I watch for biased comments and emphasis in news reporting. Any open-minded individual can spot them.
I think of media first, not as impartial carriers of the news, but as willing participants in the furor.
Considering “infotainment”, I distinguish between amusing news entertainers and respected journalists. Always consider the source.
The one media source I am celebrating this week is Time Magazine, where the annual “100 Most Influential People” issue has Dr. Fauci on the cover. You better believe I bought that issue! Definitely a story I can take at face value!
Good reporting that brings back the calm.
But now we need to start repairing our democracy. Here’s my beginning checklist:
1. Pres. Candidates must disclose taxes and bank accounts
2. No Senate hearings on sup court mominees w/in 6 months of election
3. Immediate jobs bill
4. Bill overruling CitizensUnited
5. Healthcare for all, childcare like in France (parent paid to stay home w young children), good educational opportunities, through college, no burdensome student loans, job traing for the tech society, busn training for low income, ensure all constit rights are enforced esp. For the poor/wkngclass, criminal justice reform that addresses multiple areas (police from the community, no unNECESSARY shooting, no shooting to kill (just disable), community members oversight board, cops carry 0wn liability insurance,…)
6. Progressive tax rate as under Eisenhower, executive pay limited to decent multiple of lowest paid,
7. No conflicts of interests by high office (maybe all) govt employees,
8. Undo _rump’s executive orders
#. (more)
#_. No spoiled bully rich boys who wear makeup and doubt their own virility
A year ago I never would have guessed Biden. Blacks in the Carolinas knew something.