A college historian said he believed that today could go down as one of the tensest days in American history, at least for this week.

I can feel the tension all the way to Washington County, N.Y., and our little farm. I can even feel the tension in the donkeys, or perhaps they are feeling it from us.

I hope to bring some perspective to the day.

Think of it as survival tips for surviving tonight’s debate. I intend to have some fun if I can. This isn’t the apocalypse, either.

If you can’t have fun, there’s not much point in watching. The debate just might be fun.

As always, things are not quite so dramatic as it might appear. The debate is scheduled to air tonight from Cleveland and a record two-thirds of the electorate expected to watch.

It’s important to remember that our electronic media derives all of its profits and ratings from fear and drama  – every twist and turn is the most important thing that has ever happened and the Republic is hanging by a thread.

The candidates are inundated with advice about what to do and say.

Our every hyperbolic media is assuring us that this debate could alter the course of the election and our history.

My motto for surviving this election stands: stay strong and calm down. It could be exciting to watch, but there is less here than meets the eye.

There is only a bit over one month left before the election, and millions of Americans are already voting early.

On the highly respected polling website FiveThirtyEight, Biden has been given a 78 percent out of 100 likelihood for winning the election, including Pennsylvania, a stat that is key to a Trump victory.

It’s been this way all year.

A majority of Americans are tired of Trump and seek something more normal.  They don’t believe anything he says and don’t seem to care what he does. They just want him gone.

The pandemic changed the dynamic, but nothing else has, including his new Supreme Court Justice nominee.

When the history of Trump is written, his handling of the pandemic will go down as his biggest mistake. And the  remarkable thing is that he is still making that mistake, every single day.

As niece Mary pointed out in her book, Donald Trump can’t change his mind because he is always right. Nothing, not even 200,000 deaths, can top that.

Unless Biden strips naked or Trump tosses him off stage, it’s hard to imagine anything in a debate that could change the trajectory of the campaign now. Maybe Trump will mail every voter in America a free vaccine for stoping the coronavirus with an engraved note singing his praises.

I’m not sure even that would change many minds now. We are a constipated and polarized nation; there aren’t many undecided people out there. Those who are having saying they prefer Biden for many months now.

We went through this a month ago when the media got hysterical about the conventions, saying this was a critical opportunity for Americans to meet the candidates for the first time. Lots of people watch, none of the polls changed much.

It will be entertaining, even suspenseful to see how Biden and Trump interact with one another, two old men hurling paintbrushes and sponges at one another.

It says something about our country that with all of these talented men and women running around, we ended up with these two throwbacks.

Trump is the biggest argument there is for voting for Biden, and that’s what most voters insist they will do. Biden is, so far, exceeding expectations. His campaign has been run flawlessly.

Here’s what I think the truth is about tonight’s debate:

Joe Biden will do well, he is not senile, he does not have dementia, his son is not running for President and he always appears to be a calm, decent, and old-fashioned kind of human and hackish politician.

He is no dope, has some Irish spunk, and has seen just about everything. He stumbles but never seems to break or rattle.

Trump is like the Pit Bull many people love, but who can’t be controlled and scares people. It will be interesting to see a career politician who loves rules thrown into the ring with a human Pit Bull.

Biden was a wonderful father and husband but was never a great Senator or leader.

Against Donald Trump, he looks like Winston Churchill.

In America, everything is a reality TV show now, and Americans love people who have suffered. Biden has suffered. His first wife Neilia, and their 13-month-old daughter were killed in a car crash, and then his son Beau died of brain cancer.

This gave Biden great empathy and lots of sympathy; he relates to people who have suffered. And lots of Americans are suffering right now. Trump will walk into a big trap if he attacks Biden’s family in a personal way.

He is never afraid of looking like an asshole, but this would not be the right time for Trump to show off his worst side.

It will soon be apparent tonight that Biden is not a political radical, certainly no socialist,  just an old white guy and old school Senator with a good and lots of empathy which is very much a moderate and who has been in politics for along time.

Biden believes in our failing system, he defends Republicans and swears bi-partisanship can work again. He wants to heal.

Biden is not great in debates, he’s prone to losing track of himself and fumbling his words. He is strongest in the first hour and that will be good enough to block Trump’s claim that he has dementia and takes drugs in order to be able to speak.

This is not 2016, as Democratic bedwetters keep forgetting.

The New York Times gave Biden some fresh new material – a $70,000 hairstyle deduction from the IRS? – but we know now that Trump is correct when he says he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and the people who love him would still love him.

It’s not something I would brag about if I were running for office, but then, nobody would ever elect me President.

By now, everyone, including his supporters and foes know what Trump is like. The problem isn’t that people don’t know him, it’s that they are sick of his histrionics and bullshit.

Biden will remind us early on that Trump lies, and that will put the evening into context.

The pandemic seems to be returning. The country has a nervous breakdown over Trump’s erratic and irresponsible ranting about the virus and voting fraud and the legitimacy of the election, the most sacred part of our historical process.

Biden seems to be calming in that way; people believe he can handle things. And since he is standing next to Trump, people will believe him.

Do we really buy the idea is that this debate is about our getting to know these people?

This isn’t 1850; we see the candidates every day and many times a day on our iPhones, Ipads, TV, Facebook, Twitter, cable news, and newspapers’ front pages.

We know everything about them already. I can’t imagine being surprised.

Presidential debates seem anachronistic to me in the age of new and invasive media. There is little evidence they change minds or inform the public. Do we need them in 2020?

Since Trump is the underdog at the moment, he is under great pressure to change the narrative by doing something especially obnoxious or outrageous or dramatic.

Biden has lost some steps, but he can handle himself, he’s been doing it for months now. He just has to not lose his cool and get off some sharp. Since social media, candidates have been trained to think about the zingers and sharp lines that can make the rounds on Twitter and Facebook.

There is the debate, and then, the after debate, which goes on for days, soundbites. Nobody is really trying to change anybody’s minds, they are just trying to stay alive and not give offense.

It’s not an environment for original thought or genuine dialogue. Biden’s biggest decision is about how much to shout back at Trump. I can’t answer that.

My idea is that candidates ought to be their natural selves, viewers now are savvy enough to pick up slick marketing and fake presentations. Biden is good at being earnest.

Trump doesn’t do earnest, I don’t think he has earnest inside of him except when raging about the elites who aren’t good to him.

Trump will dominate the debate by putting a greater show, that’s what he does.  All Biden really has to do is get through. Anything else is gravy.

In the strictest sense, this debate isn’t even a debate. Debates are rational and structured arguments designed to change minds. For Trump, this will just be another reality which, another shouting match.

He will roar and distract.

I assume Biden will have developed a strategy for handling Trump. It is difficult to debate someone who refuses to debate, but who speaks only for the camera.

The challenge for all of us civilians scratching our heads and praying for some sanity to return to our country is, in fact, to listen and stay calm.

If I had to make a prediction, and my ego is encouraging me to do so, it would be this:

Biden will do well enough to be proclaimed a winner. It will change very few votes and have little impact on November election-winning.

If Biden surprises us and goes after Trump in some new and dramatic way, it could just be the nail in the coffin that puts him away.

If you want to have some fun, here are some tips: Prepare lots of popcorn and snacks. Treat tonight as a festive, not a grave event. I am going to count the number of lies Trump will utter.

My friends and I are guessing how many. We’ll each post a number before the debate; the winner will have to pay for all the food and snacks.

I won’t go anywhere near social media. There is nothing to see or learn there.

Maria will be in her studio – she doesn’t watch stuff like that. I’ll text her from time to time.

I will watch the first half-hour, like everybody else, and catch the reviews in the morning after I wake up.

I can’t handle 90 minutes of these two septuagenarians slugging at each other for 90 minutes. In 30 minutes, I catch the drift. Then I will listen to some music and start reading Jon Meacham’s new book; His Truth Is Marching On: John Lewis and the Power of Hope.

Reading about John Lewis will make me feel good and cleanse me after the debate. In a sense, the debate is about how we will survive the worst of us.  Meachem’s book is about the best of us.

So have some fun with it. It’s more of the same.

I want to learn more and think more about what it means to be progressive in American in 2020. Lewis walked the walk right up to the end. I want to do the same.

With his feral instinct for the jugular, Trump is too smart to let Biden get more attention than he gets.  So that means it will be a clusterfuck.

I’m not sure Biden can be loud enough to fend him off, in a sense, that will determine the winner.

The pundits will probably see it as a draw, which will change nothing about November.

One of the many holes Trump dug for himself this Spring and Summer was to spread the idea of Joe Biden as too old to lead the country. Trump has made too many mistakes of his own as President to pull that off.

A conventional politician in Trump’s position would try to be nice and dignified and rational. Trump revels in being unconventional, so he will probably be himself.

That isn’t working for him.

He’s not an outsider now.

Trump is leading the country, and it’s in a dreadful mess. A department store mannequin could have handled the virus better. Trump is no longer the outsider banging on the gates.

There is really no one else for him to blame. It’s important, but it’s not that important. Protect yourself and don’t take it too seriously.